A timeline of key energy and climate milestones in 2024

The past decade witnessed some pivotal changes to the UK's energy system, driven by a variety of factors and influences. When asked to comment on leading drivers of change, most respondents (64%) pointed to UK government policies and regulatory frameworks, such as the Climate Change Act, having the most influence. Geopolitical events, such as conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, were also seen as significant with 55% of respondents citing them as major factors. Additionally, EU legislation and directives, such as the Industrial Emissions Directive and the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), were mentioned by 41% of respondents. Perhaps surprisingly, only a small percentage (7%) believe that the views of UK energy professionals have had any meaningful impact on energy policy decisions. Whilst it is not possible for policy to reflect all opinions, particularly as they often conflict, it is still concerning that, across the board, energy professionals feel that their voice is not being heard.

Asked to highlight which areas of UK energy policy have been most and least influenced by their views and opinions over the past ten years, the results indicate that energy professionals feel that their opinions have been reflected in efforts to decarbonise electricity, particularly in wind power and renewables in general. Most respondents also acknowledged that their perspectives on energy transition and climate change were aligned with the policies being pursued.

In contrast, respondents also feel their views have largely been disregarded and ignored in key areas such as energy efficiency, domestic oil and gas production, nuclear energy, grid infrastructure development, and energy security.

The majority (84%) stated that decarbonisation of electricity generation has been the outstanding achievement in the UK energy system over the past 10 years. Decarbonisation of transport, and energy efficiency and demand-side participation received moderate recognition, with around 30% of respondents identifying these areas as having made substantial advances. Success in  progressing energy infrastructure development and modernisation was viewed as having been achieved by only 22% (around a fifth) of respondents. Progress in the decarbonisation of heating and industry was rated even lower with only 12% citing it as an area of significant progress.

How have opinions about the impact of UK energy policy on selected energy sectors changed over time?

Responses on the effectiveness of UK energy policy in the 12 months leading up to the 2024 General Election indicate that major improvements were made in supporting renewable electricity compared to previous Energy Barometer findings. Back in 2016, respondents held a very negative perception of policy in this space. However, since 2020, opinions have become increasingly positive to the extent that policy support for renewable electricity is now regarded as the leading area of impact with a 70% success rating. Over the past 10 years of the Barometer, respondents have also registered increasingly positive feedback on the impact of policy on low-carbon transport. In 2024, it was rated positively by 46% of respondents.

However, the performance of policy in the fiscal and economic elements of the UK energy sector is rated low by respondents. “Simplification of taxation” across energy stands out with 44% of respondents viewing its impact negatively and just 3% seeing a positive effect. “Tackling fuel poverty” is also perceived negatively by 38% of respondents with a further 38% scoring policy impact as being neutral. Only 20% saw any positive impact on tackling fuel poverty. These issues have consistently ranked the lowest in terms of positive policy impact since the question was first posed back in 2016.

Over time, responses to questions surrounding the performance of policy in energy security have remained relatively stable. The 2024 edition of the Barometer reveals a split with 36% of responses indicating a positive impact and 37% a negative impact. It was notable that 24% of responses indicated that policy has had “no impact” suggesting that policy has either not been effective or focused elsewhere.

The perceptions of policy impact on supporting low-carbon heat are also relatively balanced with around 36% positive feedback, though 39% of respondents claim that there was no policy impact on this area in the 12 months prior to the General Election. After a dip in confidence in 2018, the level of positive responses in this area has gradually been improving.

Similarly, energy efficiency shows a relatively balanced view with 32% of respondents noting a positive impact but nearly half (46%) adopting a “no impact” stance, suggesting uncertainty with the effectiveness of policy. Initially viewed very positively back in 2016, perceptions have gradually become less positive about the extent to which policy has driven forward the energy efficiency agenda in the UK.

A large percentage of respondents (around 40%) indicate that policy has had “no impact” on areas such as new build nuclear power stations, carbon capture, utilisation, and storage (CCUS), flexible electricity systems, and supporting low-carbon hydrogen. All these technologies are often cited as being critical to the energy transition and are clearly areas where respondents feel policy needs to be strengthened for material progress to start.

Most respondents (70%) cite conflicting government priorities as the main barrier to progress in UK energy policy. This is closely followed by the immense scale and scope of the progress needed to achieve net zero targets (62%). This includes necessary economic, social, and structural transformations. Additionally, “fragmentation of responsibility for driving energy change within the policymaking arena” was identified by 42% of respondents as a key issue, suggesting a need for more coordinated efforts across different levels of government and stakeholders. Energy professionals also acknowledge a lack of unified, clear views among experts - particularly regarding climate change and the solutions needed - another significant barrier to progress in energy policy formulation (35%).

To enhance the quality of energy policymaking in the UK, most respondents (66%) indicate that the strengthening evidence-based decision-making is necessary. This is closely followed by recommendations to improve the understanding of critical energy challenges among the media, parliamentarians, and the wider public (48%) and to facilitate greater collaboration between energy decision-makers and the industry, such as through secondments and joint projects (46%). Such collaboration would ensure that the latest evidence and perspectives are integrated effectively into policy whilst also improving communications between policymakers and energy professionals. Additionally, a notable 44% of respondents advocate for enhancing training and professional development opportunities for policymakers and civil servants on energy-related topics.

"Looking at the lessons of the past decade, more than two thirds of our members call for fewer political distractions and more evidence in energy policy. Improving energy literacy among parliamentarians, civil servants, media, and the public, and facilitating greater interchange between Whitehall and industry, will help build the foundations for a smoother journey to net zero."

- Andy Brown FEI, EI President and Ørsted Deputy Chair

As the UK energy system enters a new, post-election era, energy professionals were asked to reflect on the key challenges the UK is expected to face over the next five years and the strategic priorities for navigating those challenges to deliver a successful energy transition.

Biggest energy-related challenges facing the UK over the next five years

To identify the greatest energy-related challenge facing the UK over the next five years, respondents were invited to provide their own open-responses that were then compiled and analysed.

Grid and energy infrastructure modernisation

For the first time in the survey's 10-year history, grid and energy infrastructure modernisation has emerged as the foremost challenge for the UK going forward. Critical concerns include insufficient investment in ageing infrastructure, an urgent need for upgrades to handle rising demand, integrate intermittent renewable generation, and maintain grid flexibility and reliability. “Addressing grid queue bottlenecks” and “securing public acceptance” of new developments such as nuclear and onshore wind are also seen as important for progress.

Energy policy

Energy policy continues to rank among the top challenges for the UK’s energy system. The survey reveals frustration with the lack of cohesive, scientifically/evidence-based strategies to achieve decarbonisation whilst ensuring energy security. Respondents point to political indecision, short-termism, and conflicting political priorities, particularly around domestic energy production. A clear, long-term policy roadmap is urgently needed to balance environmental goals with economic stability.

Energy security

Maintaining a balanced and reliable energy mix is seen as essential for maintaining the UK’s energy security. Professionals stress the importance of leveraging all the UK's natural resources while transitioning to low-carbon technologies. While many respondents call for a boost in domestic renewable energy production, some also express caution about the premature phase-out of domestic oil and gas production. They emphasise the need for a balanced, gradual transition. Concerns also include the costs and risks of over-reliance on energy imports amid ongoing global geopolitical uncertainty.

Transition to net zero

Advancing towards net zero remains a significant challenge with professionals emphasising the need for substantial investment and regulatory support to drive a cleaner energy transition. Respondents highlight that a coherent policy framework and international collaboration are essential to facilitate this transition without undermining economic stability.

Decarbonisation of heat

Within the broader decarbonisation agenda, the transition to low-carbon heat stands out as being particularly challenging. Professionals call for economic incentives and supportive policies to make electric heating solutions like heat pumps viable for consumers. Addressing both capital and operational costs for early adopters is viewed as an important step to scaling adoption.

Investment and funding

Investment challenges cut across all areas of the energy sector. Professionals cite declining oil and gas investments, and an urgent need for sustained funding for alternative technologies. Respondents cite government-private sector collaboration as being crucial to securing financing for renewable energy projects, improving building efficiency, and supporting innovations like nuclear power and carbon capture. Again, clear, long-term strategies are viewed as necessary to attract private investment.

Energy prices and affordability

The outlook for energy prices and affordability remains a pressing concern with respondents highlighting the need to alleviate costs for households and businesses whilst maintaining the clean energy transition momentum. Addressing fuel poverty, mitigating market volatility, and ensuring that the shift to net zero is equitable are rated as high priorities.

Market structure and economic factors

The energy market structure poses significant challenges, particularly in balancing potential increases in electricity costs whilst promoting renewable energy growth. Energy professionals emphasise that excessive taxation on oil and gas is highly likely to undermine investment in renewables. Aligning market prices with the real costs of energy, tackling supply chain constraints, and implementing policies that drive investment transparency are perceived as critical for a sustainable transition.

Decarbonisation of transport

Key issues highlighted include the need to expand EV charging infrastructure, especially for those without off-street parking, and ensuring the grid can meet rising demand. The results reveal removing hurdles such as high cost and infrastructure gaps that undermine the adoption of EVs through cohesive policies and strong support mechanisms is needed if the 2030 decarbonisation targets are to be achieved.

Public engagement and perception

Public engagement is perceived as challenging yet crucial to the success of the UK’s energy transition. Misconceptions about net zero goals and renewable energy must be addressed, along with public fears about lifestyle impacts and resistance to large-scale renewable projects. Transparent communication, combating disinformation, and crafting a clear, unified narrative are considered vital to gaining public trust and support for the necessary changes.

‘Clean energy superpower’

The UK Government has set an ambition to position the nation as a ‘clean energy superpower’, aiming to lead the world in clean energy innovation and sustainability. Shortly after the election, it quickly moved to lift the long-standing ban on new onshore wind projects, aiming to double onshore wind capacity by 2030. In tandem, it introduced Great British Energy, a new publicly backed entity that, in collaboration with the private sector, will work to deliver the UK’s net zero future. The government’s ambitious agenda is also evidenced by a recent record-breaking clean energy auction that awarded contracts to 131 projects, including over 5GW of offshore wind.

In seeking respondents’ views on the government’s priorities going forward, particularly the clean energy superpower ambition, most respondents (29%) believe that ensuring a stable and reliable energy supply through a balanced mix of domestic energy sources should be the government’s primary focus. Strengthening grid infrastructure and energy storage solutions (19%) emerged as the second most important priority, emphasising the urgent need to modernise the energy network to meet the evolving demands of a low-carbon future. Respondents give the following relatively equal rating in terms of priorities: keeping energy costs affordable for consumers and businesses, and mitigating energy poverty (13%), promoting environmental sustainability through investment in renewable energy and the reduction of carbon emissions (12%) and implementing energy efficiency measures to reduce overall energy demand and lower bills (11%).

The recent establishment of Great British Energy, a publicly owned energy company, signals its commitment to fostering innovation and securing long-term investment in sustainable energy solutions. Respondents highlight several key advantages of public ownership in this sector. The majority (51%) of respondents believe that a publicly owned entity could ensure long-term investment in infrastructure without pressure for short-term profits. 39% of respondents suggest that a public energy company could prioritise public interest over shareholder returns.  Additionally, 31% note that such a company would have the ability to raise capital for riskier, early-stage technologies, driving innovation in clean energy. Only 15% of respondents believe that such a company would not offer a unique advantage.

As the energy landscape shifts towards innovation and sustainable solutions, respondents also confirm the critical need for a skilled workforce. To address the predicted shortfall of green energy skilled jobs by 2030, respondents overwhelmingly emphasise the importance of expanding the range and quality of vocational education and apprenticeship pathways (53%). In addition, 51% of respondents highlight the need to retrain workers from sectors adversely affected by the energy transition. Finally, upskilling the current workforce is also identified as a key priority with 47% of respondents advocating for the development of new competencies among existing workers.

These measures indicate that a comprehensive integrated approach to workforce development that encourages the creation of new talent pipelines and ensures the retraining of existing workers is required.

Energy security continues to be seen by respondents as one of the greatest challenges facing the UK, but it is no longer defined by simply securing access to fossil fuel supplies. There are still trade-offs, but the survey suggests some of the same approaches can help address all three aspects of energy trilemma simultaneously.

45% of respondents advocate for promoting energy efficiency to reduce overall energy demand as the best option to maintain energy security. This underlines the critical role that demand-side management could play in securing long-term energy stability. Almost as many respondents (44%) support the development and use of a mix of the UK’s indigenous renewable and non-renewable energy resources as an additional option. This is followed closely by 40% of respondents who stress the need to focus exclusively on developing the UK's indigenous renewable energy resources.

To ensure that the energy transition also delivers on alleviating the cost-of-living crisis and addressing fuel poverty, the most popular recommendation (52%) is to strengthen incentives that help households improve energy efficiency. This is followed by accelerating the shift to renewables to decrease dependency on volatile international oil and gas markets (30%) and implementing market reforms that promote fairer pricing, such as regional pricing or adjusting standing charges (26%). This suite of suggestions indicate that a multi-faceted approach is needed to tackle affordability concerns within the energy transition.

With electricity prices currently including a 12% environmental and social levy, compared to just 3% for gas, respondents commented on the Climate Change Committee’s recommendation to reduce these levies to promote electrification. 39% support implementing these changes gradually, 33% call for more investment in renewable energy projects, while 26% emphasise the need to protect low-income households by offering targeted subsidies.

The need to push harder on domestic energy efficiency is clear. Respondents call for immediate, practical solutions. They overwhelmingly support targeting the remaining "low-hanging fruit" opportunities such as insulation upgrades or replacing outdated appliances (50%) as the Government’s priority to enhance domestic energy efficiency measures. In addition, 37% of respondents recommend directly supporting the adoption of modern energy technologies, such as solar panels and heat pumps, reflecting the belief that the integration of modern technologies can complement these basic efficiency measures. There is also strong backing (28%) for implementing energy efficiency improvements in social housing schemes, indicating the need for targeted support for the most vulnerable.

The future role of oil and natural gas companies

The future of oil and natural gas companies in the UK's transition to net zero remains a point of contention. Most of the respondents (45%) see a role for gas-fired power stations to continue to help integrate intermittent renewable generation on the grid until such time that utility-scale storage solutions and other balancing technology options are sufficiently deployed at scale to perform that role. Nearly as many respondents (44%) advocate for the continued provision of traditional oil and gas products alongside investment in clean-up technologies like carbon capture, utilisation, and storage (CCUS). This suggests that respondents recognise the ongoing necessity of fossil fuels during the energy transition but only if accompanied by significant investment in mitigating their environmental impact, while also highlighting the importance of renewables in responses to other questions.

Further reflecting this, 41% believe that the use of traditional oil and gas will still be required in hard-to-decarbonise sectors, such as aviation, shipping, and heavy industries for some time.

Responses to the question on the impact of the UK’s increased windfall tax on fossil fuel companies reveal a largely pessimistic outlook for the sector. Whilst some hope the tax could boost funding for renewable energy and emissions reductions, there is widespread concern about its likely negative impact on energy security, competitiveness, consumer costs, and the stability of the oil and gas sector.

The UK’s carbon reduction targets

At the time of the survey, the UK’s 6th carbon budget (2033-2037) required greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to fall by 78% (from 1990 levels) by 2035. This challenge has subsequently been increased by the Prime Minister’s commitment announced at COP29 in Baku to achieve an 81% reduction by this date. Ministers assert that this is achievable but, like all major economies, the UK must do more that it is currently doing if it is to address the most damaging effects of climate change.

However, the respondents remain sceptical. 79% of them expect that, given current UK emission reduction policies, emissions reductions will fall either short or significantly short of the target by 2035. Only 9% expect that the target will be met and only 6% expect that the target will be exceeded.

Historically expectations have been low among survey respondents about the UK’s ability to meet its carbon budgets. Since 2016, confidence in hitting the 5th and 6th carbon budget targets has fluctuated, but optimism has remained largely subdued, with most respondents consistently expecting the UK to fall short of its goals. In the 2022 and 2024 surveys, responses saw a sharp rise in pessimism, with over three-quarters of respondents expecting the UK to 'fall short' or 'fall significantly short' of this target.

Expectations for the UK's 2050 climate target are similarly pessimistic. The 2050 UK climate target aims to reduce all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to net zero. 72% expect that given current UK emission reduction policies, emissions reductions will fall short or significantly short of this target. Furthermore18% expect that the emissions reductions will fall marginally short by 2050. Only 4% expect that the targets will be met or exceeded.

The Energy Barometer respondents’ perceptions about the UK’s progress towards net zero targets have changed over time, especially considering the policy shift in 2019 from an 80% reduction to a 100% reduction (net zero). In 2015-2018, a large majority (around 80-86%) of energy professionals believed that emissions reductions would fall short of even the 80% target, expecting only a 77% or lower reduction from 1990 levels. Very few respondents expected reductions to exceed 88%.

Optimism about greater emissions cuts grew notably after the net zero policy shift in 2019 and peaked in 2020-2021, with only about 20-25% expecting reductions of 77% or less. Notably, there was a significant rise in the proportion of respondents expecting reductions in the 88-99% range, and around 10-12% even believed that net zero emissions were achievable.

Expectations declined somewhat in 2022-2024 with an increase in the share of respondents expecting reductions of 77% or less and confidence in achieving net zero has decreased to around 4-5%.

The Barometer’s respondents also express their opinion about the robustness of the UK Climate Change Act (2008), which sets legally binding carbon budgets over five-year periods. 43% of respondents indicate that there are some weaknesses in the Act that need to be addressed. A further 26% believe that the components of the Act are inadequate to fully navigate the upcoming challenges. Only 9% believe that the components of the Act are robust and effective. This highlights a concern about the current framework's capacity to deliver on the UK's climate targets.

At the heart of the Government's clean energy superpower ambition sits the goal of achieving 100% clean electricity by 2030. National Energy System Operator (NESO) has asserted that it is achievable but only with reforms to planning, grid connections, and electricity markets, alongside a transformative increase in deployment performance.

Barometer respondents echo NESO’s view. Most respondents (49%) emphasise the need to enhance the grid infrastructure and speed up grid connection times to support the integration of new renewable projects. 26% advocate for prioritising energy efficiency measures to reduce overall energy demand whilst 24% recommend increasing the incentives for households and businesses to install renewable energy and energy efficient technologies.

Sitting among the top recommendations are calls for increased incentives to attract more investment in grid-scale renewable energy technologies (22%) and the need to accelerate the deployment of energy storage technologies (21%).

In previous surveys improving grid connection times, which now extend beyond 2040 in some cases, ranked low but this year has become a critical issue for respondents. They identify several key areas for action with 46% calling for investment in increasing grid capacity, for example in new transmission lines and reinforcement of existing infrastructure. 38% highlight the need to streamline grid application permitting and consent processes, and 25% believe that local planning rules and regulations need to be reformed.

In addition, 24% suggest the transfer of existing unused grid connection agreements to new projects and investment in energy storage solutions are needed.

Survey respondents highlight a critical need for a comprehensive approach to decarbonising heat and transport in the UK; two areas that significantly lag the progress made in the power sector.

Decarbonising heat

Despite a target to install 600,000 heat pumps annually by 2028, only 60,000 units were installed in 2023. To address this gap, respondents propose several strategies. 35% of respondents point to the need to both increase funding for heat pump installation incentives for homeowners and businesses, and improve the insulation of existing buildings to make heat pump installation more effective. Additionally, 28% believe that the Government should prioritise the installation of heat pumps in public buildings and public infrastructure projects as a model for broader adoption.

Whilst electrifying heat is a critical step toward decarbonisation, respondents also emphasise the importance of other solutions such as expanding district heating networks. Key priorities include facilitating the construction of the necessary infrastructure (38%), increasing funding and financial incentives for developing district heating networks (35%) and implementing robust regulations and policies that encourage the adoption of district heating (30%).

Decarbonising transport

With only a small proportion of UK vehicles currently battery-powered, respondents highlight leading measures required to accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles (EV). A prominent 61% of respondents highlight the need to expand charging infrastructure nationally. 30% suggest increasing subsidies, tax rebates, and grants for purchasing EVs, whilst 24% call for increased R&D funding for EV-related technologies such as longer-life batteries, range extenders, and rapid chargers.

The Barometer’s respondents remain optimistic about the future of electricity in UK road transportation. According to 35% of respondents, the share of electricity in the UK’s road transportation fuel mix is expected to rise significantly from the current 1.4% to 35% by 2040. In contrast, petrol and diesel are projected to see a substantial decline, dropping from the current 92% to 43%. In addition, respondents anticipate an increased role for hydrogen and bioenergy in the overall road transport energy mix going forward.

Comparing the 2024 survey results to those from the same question posed back in 2018, reveals a steady growth in optimism about the UK’s road transport energy mix by 2040. Both surveys predict a significant reduction in petrol and diesel usage (to around 43-45%) and a strong shift toward electricity (around 34-35%). Hydrogen’s expected share dips slightly from 11% in 2018 to 8% in 2024.

This consistent outlook suggests that energy professionals remain confident of a gradual transition away from petrol and diesel which currently account for over 90% of fuel used in UK road transportation. However, realising this cleaner energy vision by 2040 will require substantial progress in technology, infrastructure, and enabling policies.

Advancing low carbon technologies

Hydrogen is gradually gaining attention as a versatile energy source and holds the potential to play a significant role in decarbonising both heat and transport. 43% of respondents point to hard-to-abate industries as the prime destinations for hydrogen use. 37% highlight hydrogen’s potential use in heavy-duty goods vehicles, whilst 31% see promise in hydrogen-derived synthetic fuels. 30% note its potential in manufacturing green ammonia.

Respondents also highlight several gaps that need to be addressed, to enable widespread adoption of hydrogen. High costs associated with hydrogen production, storage, and infrastructure development were identified by 41% of respondents. 36% note the lack of sufficient infrastructure for hydrogen production, distribution, and storage. Additionally, 18% emphasise inadequate policies and regulations supporting hydrogen deployment as another barrier. Meanwhile, 26% argued that other technologies might be more cost-effective or efficient than hydrogen in the UK’s energy system, suggesting there may be no need for its widespread use.

While the survey was live, the government announced it was allocating £22 billion over 25 years to carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) projects, aiming to position the UK at the forefront of global carbon capture efforts. After years of mixed signals in the CCUS sector, this new commitment marks a hopeful shift.

However, the survey findings indicate that more than funding is needed to scale CCUS effectively.

Respondents (44%) highlight the need for a stable policy framework to support CCUS development. 24% point to the value of fostering cooperation between industrial clusters to share infrastructure and knowledge for CCUS projects, while 23% suggest tightening the cap on the UK Emissions Trading Scheme to allow carbon market prices to provide sufficient incentive. It is worth noting that 15% of respondents argue against supporting CCUS technologies.